diamond geezer

It's the local elections tomorrow and London is electing borough councillors.

Here are snapshots of five election leaflets, three of which came through my letterbox and two of which are from opposite sides of London.

This is from the Greens in Bow East.

The bar graph is a fairly staple local election trope, essentially confirming "we are the only credible alternative". For context Bow East currently has a full contingent of three Labour councillors. However Labour don't run Tower Hamlets because Lutfur Rahman does, nor do Labour have the most councillors overall. It's thus a bit rich to say "If you're fed up with Labour..." because locally they run nothing.

The message is similar to Reform UK's slogan for the local elections which is GET STARMER OUT, despite the fact you're not voting for him at all. Both parties are simply piggybacking on the unpopularity of the national party in the hope of getting elected on a tidal wave of negativity... a tactic which might well be successful.

However I'm much more concerned about the graph. Supposedly it shows a projection for Bow East, as calculated in April by the website britain.votes.now.

I was intrigued enough to visit the website where I checked what the figures were... and they were nothing like those displayed in the leaflet. Here's my graph of what they actually said.

The data-bashers at britain.votes.now expect Labour to get 37% of the vote and the Greens 28%. This is not just the other way round to the graph in the leaflet, it's a Labour lead of 9% rather than a Green lead of 1%. I checked the website last week when the leaflet arrived and the data hasn't changed since, it's been resolutely 37%/28%/23%/5%/4%/3% all the time.

The britain.votes.now website also has a separate tab for the 'Win probability' in every ward. Here they assign 65% to Labour winning, 23% to the Greens and 12% to Aspire, i.e. they're fairly convinced Bow East will be a Labour victory. It might not be because that's how elections and probability work, but I saw nothing at britain.votes.now to support the graph in my election leaflet.

I emailed the Tower Hamlets Green Party last week asking them to explain but they haven't bothered responding. Perhaps they're preoccupied by their prospects nextdoor in Bow West where britain.votes.now does indeed give the Greens a victory probability of 65%. But here in Bow East, either the Greens have misinterpreted the data or they've drawn a deliberately misleading graph.

This leaflet is from Aspire, Lutfur Rahman's party. I haven't chopped anything off.

The leaflet is essentially just a huge ballot paper with instructions for how to vote for Lutfur as Mayor. It even explains what 'vote' means in three different languages. The back is much the same but instead shows how to vote for the three Aspire councillors locally. It's pretty much entirely 'how to vote for us', not why.

To be fair, Lutfur sent a whopping 4-page list of achievements separately a few weeks ago and this is merely leaflet number 2. But it does feel like a guide for people who don't understand what politics is about, perhaps due to language issues or lack of interest, thus something you could give to a compliant family member before nudging them towards a voting booth. It's not illegal, but it is an illuminating example of Lutfur's ability to get his vote out.

Labour's candidate for Mayor of Tower Hamlets took a different approach, sending me a two-page personally-addressed letter.

Page 1 mostly says you can't trust Lutfur to run the council properly whereas you can trust Sirajul. Page 2 then explains that Lutfur can be beaten but only if everyone who doesn't want him comes together and votes Labour instead. It's heartfelt but I can't see it happening, indeed this year I'd say Labour doesn't have a hope.

This leaflet is from Reform in Ickenham.

I wasn't given it, I found it on the pavement partially torn. For context the Conservatives won over half the vote in Ickenham and South Harefield four years ago, and britain.votes.now assigns them a 95% probability of winning again.

The first paragraph includes the line "Like many of you, we have become increasingly concerned about the direction our community is headed". However it's not stated what that direction is, it's left to the reader to fill in the gaps. The wider genius of Reform's messaging is also evident in their nationwide slogan REFORM CAN FIX IT, where 'IT' could be potholes, poverty, immigration or whatever makes you think they're on your side.

Paragraph 2 bashes the existing council, including the fact its leader is paid considerably more than the Prime Minister. When you have 2500 employees and are responsible for the wellbeing of 320,000 residents, perhaps that's just the going rate. This section also references "£199,000 paid on translation services for those who refuse to integrate", and you can almost hear the dog whistle there, that's how loud it is.

Overall the leaflet is really non-specific, right down to "ensuring your best interests are served at the council" without spelling out what that means. That's populism for you, but potentially a very successful approach at a time when people just want change.

Finally to Hornchurch where I was handed this leaflet outside Sainsbury's.

It's from the Residents Association because they do things differently in Havering, indeed the HRA currently run the borough as a minority administration. Hence you can feel their frustration when they kick things off by pointing out it's a local election, not a national or regional one. The councillors elected this week will be in charge of libraries, social care and community safety, not immigration, housing targets and ULEZ.

They also weigh in on Reform by pointing out that "a vote for Essex" is Party Political nonsense, listing all the things residents might lose if that nostalgic pipedream were ever implemented.

It must be frustrating for councillors (of all parties) who work hard to do their best for the local community, only to be voted out of office by people with no understanding of what's been achieved. Because people will still walk into the polling booth on Thursday and vote on national issues, or because they hate the Mayor of London, rather than for whoever might be best at emptying the bins. Local elections are all too often the wrong kind of popularity contest, same as it ever was.